Written by Jideofor Adibe pcjadibe@yahoo.com (08112661609 texts only)
I had a tough argument with a reader who had a
very dim view of my last week's article in which I opined that APC
would be making a mistake if it opts for a Muslim-Muslim ticket as was
being speculated in the media.
After fending off his charge that my supposed bias against APC beclouded my judgment in the said article, I also put him on the spot by charging that his obvious uncritical APC sympathy made it difficult for him to see the party's potential missteps, including those that could literally amount to the party digging its own grave. We eventually agreed to disagree on a number of issues. On his suggestion that I should recommend a 'winning' ticket for the APC, I demurred, arguing that it would be unethical for a columnist to try to force the hand of a party on its choice of candidates or influence voters' preferences. The way I see it, our duty as public intellectuals, is to provide enough analytical information and clarify the issues at stake sufficiently enough for policy makers or voters to make their own choices.
Based on the above, my zeroing in on a putative Tambuwal presidential candidacy does not amount to an endorsement or forcing the hands of APC. My interest is to show the likely implications of his candidacy in the 2015 race against President Jonathan, who is yet to formally throw his hat into the ring. This will of course be without prejudice to other potential presidential candidates in the party, several of whom are eminently qualified for the job.
There are reasons I believe that a Tambuwal presidential candidacy will bring unusual excitement to the campaigns and will valorise the base of both parties. In saying this, I am assuming that Tambuwal, who was helped to the Speakership with opposition votes and has remained 'grateful' ever since, is either a closet APC chieftain or could be easily co-opted into the party. He is young and boyish - only 48 years old. He is also courageous, charismatic, speaks well and has been able to hold the House together for some three years. His greatest strength is that while he has a national name-recognition by virtue of being the Speaker of the House of Representatives, he does not have the baggage that other potential presidential candidates, who have held high public offices in the past, have. The PDP will therefore struggle to find a major attack line against him that can stick.
If Tambuwal, who is from the North-west is endorsed by Buhari and Atiku, chooses as his running mate an older Christian with the requisite governmental experience (to make up for his lack of real administrative experience and to allay the anxiety of those who may be worried about his relative youth), then the campaign for 2015 will get really exciting. He may not win but such a ticket will effectively forestall the emergence of a third relatively strong party in the North. My instinct tells me that any major misstep by APC, (which must be given credit for holding together for so long against all odds and predictions), will lead to mass defections, not of individuals as happened to the PDP but of the various groupings and tendencies that came together to form the party and give its current swagger. Defections of such groupings are unlikely to be back to the PDP - as it will amount to one swallowing one's vomit. If such disaffected groupings move to any party, especially if the defections include one or two governors who will bring with them a good war chest, the beneficiary political party will become bolstered overnight.
REF http://allafrica.com/stories/201404100573.html
After fending off his charge that my supposed bias against APC beclouded my judgment in the said article, I also put him on the spot by charging that his obvious uncritical APC sympathy made it difficult for him to see the party's potential missteps, including those that could literally amount to the party digging its own grave. We eventually agreed to disagree on a number of issues. On his suggestion that I should recommend a 'winning' ticket for the APC, I demurred, arguing that it would be unethical for a columnist to try to force the hand of a party on its choice of candidates or influence voters' preferences. The way I see it, our duty as public intellectuals, is to provide enough analytical information and clarify the issues at stake sufficiently enough for policy makers or voters to make their own choices.
Based on the above, my zeroing in on a putative Tambuwal presidential candidacy does not amount to an endorsement or forcing the hands of APC. My interest is to show the likely implications of his candidacy in the 2015 race against President Jonathan, who is yet to formally throw his hat into the ring. This will of course be without prejudice to other potential presidential candidates in the party, several of whom are eminently qualified for the job.
There are reasons I believe that a Tambuwal presidential candidacy will bring unusual excitement to the campaigns and will valorise the base of both parties. In saying this, I am assuming that Tambuwal, who was helped to the Speakership with opposition votes and has remained 'grateful' ever since, is either a closet APC chieftain or could be easily co-opted into the party. He is young and boyish - only 48 years old. He is also courageous, charismatic, speaks well and has been able to hold the House together for some three years. His greatest strength is that while he has a national name-recognition by virtue of being the Speaker of the House of Representatives, he does not have the baggage that other potential presidential candidates, who have held high public offices in the past, have. The PDP will therefore struggle to find a major attack line against him that can stick.
If Tambuwal, who is from the North-west is endorsed by Buhari and Atiku, chooses as his running mate an older Christian with the requisite governmental experience (to make up for his lack of real administrative experience and to allay the anxiety of those who may be worried about his relative youth), then the campaign for 2015 will get really exciting. He may not win but such a ticket will effectively forestall the emergence of a third relatively strong party in the North. My instinct tells me that any major misstep by APC, (which must be given credit for holding together for so long against all odds and predictions), will lead to mass defections, not of individuals as happened to the PDP but of the various groupings and tendencies that came together to form the party and give its current swagger. Defections of such groupings are unlikely to be back to the PDP - as it will amount to one swallowing one's vomit. If such disaffected groupings move to any party, especially if the defections include one or two governors who will bring with them a good war chest, the beneficiary political party will become bolstered overnight.
REF http://allafrica.com/stories/201404100573.html
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